Kelly Criterion: The Blackjack Player's Weapon

Pot odds, or the method of determining the exact monetary value of your cards, can be just as important in blackjack as it is in poker. Savvy blackjack players know this and know this well, though it has a specific name for blackjack players. It's called the Kelly Criterion.

The Kelly Criterion is a betting system or method that requires a player to have the mathematical edge in a particular hand of blackjack. It is not card counting, nor is it a method of manipulating the odds in your favor. The Kelly Criterion is a method of making sure that when the odds are in your favor that you win the maximum amount. In simple terms, it doesn't change the gun but changes the ammunition. It's a basic method of controlling bets, as with any betting system or system that determines pot odds. However, the system only works when it comes to basic and old style blackjack - tables that work with 6/5 do not draw well with the Kelly Criterion.

Short term winning is not the aim of the Kelly Criterion or other betting systems. Long term and committed gambling and blackjack playing will benefit the most from such systems. This makes it a system for the blackjack player than wants to make real or at least more consistent money at this famous casino game. Whenever you bet in proportion to the power of your cards, then you may unintentionally be using a sort of Kelly Criterion.

John Larry Kelly created this theorem in Texas and was obviously named after him. This was originally designed for investment methods and plans, but savvy people figured out that gambling was essentially a form of investment and used this fact to apply the Kelly Criterion to casino games and blackjack.

The main and not always noticeable drawback of the Kelly Criterion is that it tends to create explosive situations in what is normally a calm game. With every three hands comes a chance that you may blow up half your bankroll before you even have a chance of making a significant game. Add to this the fact that the criterion does not guarantee victory and you'll find the reason why there are so many half-kelly variants.

Like any gambling strategy or pot odds calculations, it comes down to the player. This merely gives any player the information, but does not necessarily tell them what to do or outline the right play. With dedication and practice however, a committed player can make good and long use of the Kelly Criterion.